Increase in Interest Rates to cost Aylesbury Home Owners £263.10 a year

Aylesbury homeowners will be among those affected by the latest rise in the Bank of England interest rates. The first increase in 10 years; they have just been raised from 0.25 percent to 0.5 per cent. This uplift comes as inflation hits a 51-month high of 2.9 per cent whilst the national unemployment rate is at an all-time low of 4.3 per cent.

    

Interestingly, the Governor of the Bank of England has indicated that the interest rate is likely to increase again over the next couple of years, but Mr Carney said mortgages and savings would not be affected in the short term. However, look at all the big banks and just about all of them have increased their standard variable mortgage rate..  

The average Aylesbury mortgage is £105,241

I have to ask by how much Aylesbury homeowners (on variable rate or tracker mortgages) will see their repayments increase?

In the HP20 postcode there are 2,145 homeowners with a mortgage, of which 921 have a variable rate mortgage (the remaining have fixed rate mortgages). The total amount owed by those HP20 homeowners with those variable rate mortgages is £96,978,458, meaning the average monthly mortgage payment for those home owners on variable rate mortgages before the interest rate rise was £820.59 per month and now its £842.51 per month … meaning

The interest rate rise will cost Aylesbury

homeowners on average an extra £263.10 per year

Whilst this is the first raise in interest rates in over 10 years, it must be noted it is at a significantly low level compared to figures in the 1970s and early 1990s. Many of my readers talk of interest rates at 17 per cent when Sir Geoffrey Howe increased them to try and combat the hyperinflation (from the fallout of the financial crisis that hit Britain in the 1970’s) and Norman Lamont in September 1992 with the infamous Black Wednesday crisis, when interest rates were raised from 10% to 15% in just one day.

So, what will this interest rate actually do to the Aylesbury housing market?

Well, if I’m being frank – not a great deal. The proportion of Aylesbury homeowners with variable rate mortgages (and thus directly affected by a Bank of England rate rise) will be smaller than in the past, in part because the vast majority of new mortgages in recent years were taken on fixed interest rates. The proportion of outstanding mortgages on variable rates has fallen to a record low of 42.3 per cent, down from a peak of 72.9 per cent in the autumn of 2011.

If more Aylesbury people are protected from interest rate rises, because they are on a fixed rate mortgage, then there is less chance of those Aylesbury people having to sell their Aylesbury properties because they can’t afford the monthly repayments or even worse case scenario, have them repossessed.

However, and this will be of interest to both Aylesbury homeowners and Aylesbury buy to let landlords …

.. for every 1% increase in the Bank of England interest rate, it will cost the average Aylesbury homeowner on a variable rate mortgage £87.70 per month

So, what next? Because UK inflation levels are at 2.9 per cent (the country’s highest rate since April 2012) and the Bank of England is tasked by HM Government to keep inflation at 2 per cent using various monetary tools (one of which is interest rates) – you can see why interest rate rises might be on the cards in the future as increasing interest rates tends to dampen inflation.

Now of course there is a certain amount of uncertainty with regard to Brexit and the negotiations thereof, but fundamentally the British economy is in decent shape. People will always need housing and as we aren’t building enough houses (as I have mentioned many times in the Aylesbury Property Blog), we might see a slight dip in prices in the short term, but in the medium to long term, the Aylesbury property market will always remain strong for both Aylesbury homeowners and Aylesbury landlords alike.

One in 16 rental properties in the Aylesbury area will be illegal in 2018

As the winter months draw in and the temperature starts to drop, keeping one’s home warm is vital. Yet, with the price of gas and electricity rising quicker than a Saturn V rocket and gas, oil and electricity taking on average 4.4% of a typical Brit’s pay packet (and for those Brit’s with the lowest 10% of incomes, that rockets to an eye watering 9.7%), whether you are a tenant or homeowner, keeping your energy costs as low as possible is vital for the household budget and the environment as a whole.

For the last 10 years, every private rental property must have an Energy-Performance-Certificate (EPC) rating.  The property is given an energy rating, very similar to those on washing machines and fridges with the rainbow coloured graph, of between A to G (A being the most efficient and G the least). New legislation comes in to force next spring (2018) for English and Welsh private landlords making it illegal to let a property that does not meet a certain energy rating. After the 1^st of April next year, any new tenant moving into a private rented property or an existing tenant renewing their tenancy must have property with an energy performance rating of E or above on the property’s EPC and the new law will apply for all prevailing tenancies in the spring of 2020. After April 2018, if a landlord lets a property in the ‘F’ and ‘G’ ratings (i.e. those properties with the worst energy ratings) Trading Standards could fine the landlord up to £4,000.

Personally, I have grave apprehensions that many Aylesbury landlords may be totally unaware that their Aylesbury rental properties could fall below these new legal minimum requirements for energy efficiency benchmarks. Whilst some households may require substantial works to get their Aylesbury property from an F/G rating to an E rating or above, my experience is most properties may only need some minor work to lift them from illegal to legal. By planning and acting now, it will mitigate the need to find tradespeople in the spring when every other Aylesbury landlord will be panicking and paying top dollar for work to comply.

Whilst there is money and effort involved in upgrading the energy efficiency of rental property, a property that is energy efficient will have greater appeal to tenants and other buy-to-let landlords/investors and this will enable you to obtain higher rents and sale price (when you come to sell your investment).

So, how many properties are there in the area that are F and G rated .. well quite a few in fact. Looking at the whole of the Aylesbury Vale District Council area, of the 9,234 privately rented properties, there are ..

430 rental properties in the F banding

137 rental properties in the G banding

That means just over one in 16 rental properties in the Aylesbury and surrounding area has an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of F or G. From April next year it will be illegal to rent out those homes rated F and G homes with a new tenancy.

Talking with the Energy Assessors that carry out our EPC’s, they tell me most of a building’s heat is lost through draughty windows/doors or poor insulation in the roof and walls. So why not look at your EPC and see what the assessor suggested to improve the efficiency of your property? 

I can find the EPC of every rental property in Aylesbury, so irrespective of whether you are a client of mine or not, don’t hesitate to contact me via email (or phone) if you need some guidance on finding out the EPC rating or need a trustworthy contractor that can help you out? 

Aylesbury Homeowners Are Only Moving Every 13 Years (part 2)

In the credit crunch of 2008/9 the rate of home moving plunged to its lowest level ever. In 2009 the rate at which a typical house would change hands slumped to only once every 21 years. The biggest reason being that confidence was low and many homeowners didn’t want to sell their home as Aylesbury property prices plunged after the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. However, since 2009, the rate of home moving has increased (see the table and graph below), meaning today:

The average period of time between home moves in

Aylesbury is now 13 years.

This is an increase of 61.31 per cent between the credit crunch fallout year of 2009 and today, but still it is a 21.27 per cent drop in moves by homeowners, compared to 15 years ago (The Noughties).

So why aren’t Aylesbury homeowners moving as much as they did in the Noughties?

The causes of the current state of play are numerous. In last weeks article I talked about how ‘real’ incomes and savings had been dropping. Another issue is the long-term failure in the number of properties being built. Only a few weeks ago in the blog, I was discussing the draconian planning rules meaning house builders struggle to locate building land to actually build on.

Back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, as a country, we were building on average 300,000 and 350,000 households a year. The Barker Review a few years ago said that for the UK to stand still and keep up with housing demand (through immigration, people living longer, a just under 50% increase in the number of households with a single person since the 1980’s and family makeup (i.e. divorce makes one household now two)) we needed to build 240,000 households a year. Over the last few years, we have only been building between 135,000 and 150,000 households a year.

Finally, as the UK Population gets older, there is no getting away from the fact that a maturing population is a less mobile one.

So, what does this mean for Aylesbury homeowners and landlords?

Well, if Aylesbury people are less inclined to move or find it hard to sell a property or acquire a new one, they are probably less likely to move to an improved job or a more prosperous part of the UK.

Many of the older generation in Aylesbury are stuck in property that is simply too big for their needs. The fact is that, in Aylesbury Vale, more than five out of every ten (or 51.2 per cent) owned houses has two or more spare bedrooms; or to be more exact ...

25,761 of the 50,302 owned households in the Aylesbury Vale

area have two or more spare bedrooms.

So, as their children and grandchildren struggle to move up the housing ladder, with those young families bursting at the seams in homes too small for them i.e. overcrowding, we have a severe case of under-occupation with the older generation - grandparents staying put in their bigger homes, with a profusion of spare bedrooms.

Regrettably, I cannot see how the rate of properties being sold will rise any time soon. Many commentators have suggested the Government should give tax breaks to allow the older generation to downsize, yet in a recent White Paper on housing published just weeks before the General Election, there was no reference of any thoughtful and detailed policies to inspire or support them to do so.

This means that there could be an opportunity for Aylesbury buy to let landlords to secure larger properties to rent out, as the demand for them will surely grow over the coming years. As for homeowners; well those in the lower and middle Aylesbury market will find it a balanced sellers/buyers market, but will find it slightly more a buyers market in the upper price bands.

Interesting times ahead!

Aylesbury Home Owners Are Only Moving Every 13 Years (part 1)

As I mentioned in a previous article, the average house price in Aylesbury is 9.87 times the average annual Aylesbury salary. This is higher than the last peak of 2008, when the ratio was 8.97. A number of City commentators anticipated that in the ambiguity that trailed the Brexit vote, UK (and hence Aylesbury) property prices might drop like a stone. The point is – they haven’t.

Now it’s true the market for Aylesbury’s high end properties looks a little fragile (although they are selling if they are realistically priced) and overall, Aylesbury property price growth has slowed, but the lower to middle Aylesbury property market appears to be quite strong.

Scratch under the surface though, and a different long-term picture is emerging away from what is happening to property prices. Aylesbury people are moving home less often than they once did. Data from the Office of National Statistics shows that the number of properties sold in 2016 is again much lower than it was in the "Noughties". My statistics show …

Even though we are not anywhere near the post credit crunch (2008 and 2009) low levels of property sales, the torpor of the Aylesbury housing market following the 2016 Brexit vote has seen the number of property sales in Aylesbury and the surrounding local authority area level off to what appears to be the start of a new long term trend (compared the Noughties).

Interestingly, it was the 1980’s that saw the highest levels of people moving home. Nationally, everyone was moving on average every decade. Even though it was during the Labour administration of the late 1970’s where the right to buy one’s council house started, it was the Housing Act of 1980 that that really got council tenants moving, as Thatcher’s Tory government financially encouraged council tenants to buy their council-rented homes - for which countless then sold them on for a profit and moved elsewhere. The housing market was awash with money as banks were allowed to offer mortgages as well as the existing building societies, meaning it made it simpler for Brits to borrow even more money on mortgages and to climb up the housing ladder.

But coming back to today, looking at the property sales figures in the Aylesbury area since 2010/11, a new trend of number of property sales appears to have started. Interestingly, this has been mirrored nationally. The reasons behind this are complex, but a good place to start is the growth rate of real UK household disposable income, which has fallen from 5.01% a year in 2000 to 1.68% in 2016. Also, things have deteriorated since the country voted to leave the EU as consumer price inflation has risen to 2.7% per annum, meaning inflation has eaten away at the real value of wages (as they have only grown by 1.1% in the same time frame).

With meagre real income growth, it has become more difficult for homeowners to accumulate the savings needed to climb up the housing ladder as the level of saving has also dropped from 4.26% of household income to -1.11% (i.e. people are eating into their savings).

Next week I will be discussing how these (and other issues) has meant the level of Aylesbury people moving home has slumped to once every 13 years. 

Aylesbury House Prices Outstrip Wage Growth by 26.12% since 2007

I recently read a report by the Yorkshire Building Society that 54% of the country has seen wages (salaries) rise faster than property prices in the last 10 years. The report said that in the Midlands and North, salaries had outperformed property prices since 2007, whilst in other parts of the UK, especially in the South, the opposite has happened and property prices have outperformed salaries quite noticeably.

As regular readers of my blog know, I always like to find out what has actually happened locally in Aylesbury. To talk of North and South is not specific enough for me. Therefore, to start, I looked at what has happened to salaries locally since 2007. Looking at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) data for Aylesbury Vale District Council, some interesting figures came out...

Salaries in Aylesbury Vale have risen by 12.15% since 2007 (although it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride to get there!) - interesting when you compare that with what has happened to salaries regionally (an increase of 15.87%) and nationally, an increase of 17.61%.

Next, I needed to find what had happened to property prices locally over the same time frame of 2007 and today. Net property values in Aylesbury Vale are 38.27% higher than they were in late 2007 (not forgetting they did dip in 2008 and 2009). Therefore...

Property values in the Aylesbury area have increased at a higher rate than wages to the tune of 26.12% ... meaning, Aylesbury is in line with the regional trend 

All this is important, as the relationship between salaries and property values is the basis on how affordable property is to first (and second, third etc.) time buyers. It is also vitally relevant for Aylesbury landlords as they need to be aware of this when making their buy-to-let plans for the future. If more Aylesbury people are buying, then demand for Aylesbury rental properties will drop (and vice versa).

As I have discussed in a few articles in my blog recently, this issue of ‘property-affordability’ is a great bellwether to the future direction of the Aylesbury property market. Now of course, it isn’t as simple as comparing salaries and property prices, as that measurement disregards issues such as low mortgage rates and the diminishing proportion of disposable income that is spent on mortgage repayments.

On the face of it, the change between 2007 and 2017 in terms of the ‘property-affordability’ hasn’t been that great. However, look back another 10 years to 1997, and that tells a completely different story. Nationally, the affordability of property more than halved between 1997 and today. In 1997, house prices were on average 3.5 times workers’ annual wages, whereas in 2016 workers could typically expect to spend around 7.7 times annual wages on purchasing a home.

The issue of a lack of homeownership has its roots in the 1980’s and 1990’s. It’s quite hard as a tenant to pay your rent and save money for a deposit at the same time, meaning for many Aylesbury people, home ownership isn't a realistic goal. Earlier in the year, the Tories released proposals to combat the country’s 'broken' housing market, setting out plans to make renting more affordable, while increasing the security of rental deals and threatening to bring tougher legal action to cases involving bad landlords.

This is all great news for Aylesbury tenants and decent law-abiding Aylesbury landlords (and indirectly owner occupier homeowners). 

Its Not Just Hallowe’en That Is Scary In October!

I touched on the current state of the Rental market in Aylesbury in my last article which would appear to be slower moving than it has been for any of the previous months of 2017.

This is what makes October scary if you are trying to let. For the 3 years prior to 2017, October was the lowest performing month in all three years and whilst this year, we have already exceeded the performance against October 2016, we are still seeing the market do what it seems to do year in, year out.

This was backed up by a recent Rightmove webinar, which confirmed that October for the rental market up and down the land follows the same pattern. In a poll conducted on this webinar, 55% of agents claimed it was harder to find good quality rental applicants for their properties in October and only 9% said it was still easy to find good quality applicants.

If it is just a trend, then we should see November pick back up to normal levels as in previous years. December will tail off toward Christmas but should start well.

But who has time to wait? each month that your property sits on the market is money lost.

I know I say this all the time, but it’s true… Listen to the advice of your agent!!!

Of 67 Rental Properties that have been loaded to Rightmove in the last 7 days leading up to 19/10/17.

17 are price reductions.

6 Have been marked as LET AGREED, yes that really is Just 6 Let in the last 7 days of the 245 properties available to let currently, which is around double the amount of available properties at the start of 2017.

So, supply has increased, demand appears to have slowed, but it has not stopped.

It’s really important to note that people are still looking at Rightmove, they are clicking to view properties online, but this activity online is not converting to viewings.

There could be any number of reasons for this; they aren’t sure if they really want to move in the lead up to Christmas, they have concerns about what Brexit could mean for their personal situation (work stability, right to remain or any other possible concerns that could come up from the mess that is Brexit),

it could also be that they just haven’t seen anything that is making them stop and think ‘I really must call to have a look at that property’.

The property market is really no different to any other market place, in that you have a product you want someone to purchase (or in this case rent). Your product needs to be compelling enough to get that interest and you want your product to sell (rent) before your competitors.

Regardless of the size, design or layout of your property, everyone has different preferences and your objective is to get the largest target audience to want to see your property over anyone else’s.

How?

There are three main factors to think about and the more of these that you get right, the better positioned you will be to achieve your goal.

The Presentation has to be right. The property should not be cluttered or in a poor state of repair. 

You should not accept anything other than good quality photographs from your agent

But, if its cluttered and in poor decorative state, your agent may not even take internal photos... Is that doing the property justice in attracting you a good quality tenant?

The Price.  just because property “X” around the corner achieved top rent back in the summer and it is a similar property does not mean yours will too. The lettings market is dynamic and fast moving and getting your price right when you come to market is essential.

Make your property top of the list by pricing it to compete with everything else around, not to be hidden in amongst the rest and certainly not to stand out for being priced above and beyond anything else that is out there.

For every week that a property sits empty on the market, that is money lost, not just in rent but in utilities, council tax and mortgage and maintenance costs. Is coming on the market £25/£50 below the rest of the market a loss? or is it securing you a good tenant sooner than the rest of the market and cutting your expenses?

The Agent.   The last piece in the puzzle. Your agent should want to Let your property, it’s how they make money. They should want you to be happy that you have a good tenant that will remain your tenant for as long as possible, so that when the time comes you will come back to use them again and again. 

They should also want to give honest advice on the market conditions to ensure your property gets a good tenant at a correct rent in a sensible timescale.  Your agent should not shy away from having difficult conversations with you about, pricing, presentation and market conditions.

The conditions of the market could be at their slowest, but by taking an agents advice and getting ahead of the market as much as possible, will put you in a better position than any of your competitors.

It’s all too easy to forget that your target audience has access to the whole of the Aylesbury property market with the touch of a phone screen. They can search in price order, they can search for what has come to market most recently, if your property has sat on the market for a month or more at a price that is not competitive, how likely are they to even notice your property? Remember 67 properties have come to market in the last 7 days… your property needs to be top of that list. 

What is happening in the Aylesbury rental market?

Probably the question you are most often asked if you are a lettings agent! Right now, it is not an easy question to give a sensible response to.

We have seen significant price growth over this year and most landlords have been very happy that their property has been let swiftly. So it has been a good year to date.

However, things are changing. Properties are not letting as swiftly and the prices are not as strong. We are seeing some property dropping in price before being able to let (that is not counting the ones that went to market at an inflated price!).

The strong supply available means tenants are being much more picky and not willing to commit as fast.

If you are trying to let your property you need to have your price and presentation right. It goes without saying that you need a proactive agent on side giving you the right advice. If you stumble in to a void period things get expensive pretty quickly. Don’t forget that as we move in to the festive end of the year the number of tenants seeking to move will reduce further. Much better to let now at a price you don’t like than to wait and let at a price you like even less in November…or not at all.

If it is not at all then those weeks without a rental income become expensive real quick and it won’t be a very merry Christmas.

If you were to look at Rightmove today the figures are quite telling. In the last 7 days 30 properties have come on to the market, 13 properties have been reduced in price and ONLY ONE property of those has been let.

I have looked at the level of applicants we have registered in the third quarter of the year for the last three years and this year is 10% down on last year and 18% down on 2015

If I was a landlord trying to let at the moment I would be taking action immediately to secure a tenant.

One more thing to think about…The sales market locally like much of the South East is slowing down (950 properties available on Rightmove today for ‘Aylesbury’)…as it does so this represents both a threat and an opportunity.

The threat is from those sellers that won’t or can’t reduce in price to sell in this climate but still need to move. They will become your competitors as they turn to the lettings market to allow them to move.

The opportunity comes from those that need to sell because they need to move. These vendors are more likely to reduce or take a lower offer to get moved…they could make a great addition to your portfolio. Look out for properties that have just come back on the market…there may be a developer at the top of the chain who will throw money at the bottom of the chain to see a swift exchange. The same applies to Part Exchange properties…you can often identify these as they likely come on to the market the same day but with 2 or more agents.

If you are trying to let without success or want to sanity check your investment plans just drop in, call or email declen@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk 01296 398555 5Temple Street Aylesbury HP20 2RN

Moving from a 2 bed Aylesbury Property to a 4 bed will cost you £971 pm

Moving to a bigger home is something Aylesbury people with growing young families aspire to. Many people in two bedroom homes move to a three-bedroom home and some even make the jump to a four-bed home. Bigger homes, especially three bed Aylesbury homes are much in demand and it can be a costly move.

If you live in Aylesbury in a two-bedroom property and wish to move to a four-bedroom house in Aylesbury, you would need to spend an additional £3245,942 (or £971.47 pm in mortgage payments (based on the UK Bank average standard variable rate)). However, going straight to a four bed from a two-bed home is quite rare as most people jump from a two to three-bedroom home, then later in life, from a three to four-bedroom home.

So, after being asked my thoughts on moving home in Aylesbury by a friend recently, please find my analysis of the local property market and then some thoughts. To start with, let us see what the average property price is for an Aylesbury property by the number of bedrooms it has.

Average Property Price in Aylesbury by Bedroom
1 bed	2 bed	3 bed	4 bed	5 bed
£178,588	£238,485	£315,745	£484,426	£555,416

I then decided to calculate what it would cost to make the jump upmarket from one bedroom to two bedrooms, two to three bedrooms etc, etc, both in actual money and in mortgage payments (using the current standard variable rate of UK Banks of 4.74% - so the mortgage cost could be higher or lower depending on the mortgage taken).

	Aylesbury
	Price Difference to make the move	Cost per month to move up market (Mortgage)
1 bed to 2 bed	£59,896	£236.59
2 bed to 3 bed	£77,260	£305.18
2 bed to 4 bed	£245,942	£971.47
3 bed to 4 bed	£168,681	£666.29
4 bed to 5 bed	£70,990	£280.41

There are some interesting jumps in costs when moving upmarket as an Aylesbury buyer. The cost of moving from one to two beds, and two to three beds is relatively reasonable, whilst the jump from three to four beds in Aylesbury is quite high (and hence why some four bed properties are taking slightly longer to sell nowadays). On an aside, a lesson here for all my landlord property blog readers, you can quite clearly see why the larger 4 and 5 bed properties don’t offer the best returns for buy to let because the monthly finance costs and rents achieved don’t match up so well (i.e. A mortgage for a 4 bed home in Aylesbury would cost you 53.42% compared to a 3 bed mortgage, but the jump in rent would be a lot less than that - although depending on your circumstances, 4 bed homes can offer other advantages to buy to let – pick up the phone if you want to know what they are in more detail).

So, coming back and looking at the stock of properties in Aylesbury, this also makes interesting reading …

Housing Stock in Aylesbury by Bedrooms
1 bed	2 bed	3 bed	4 bed	5 bed
11.54%	32.05%	39.28%	16.67%	0.47%

The most active purchasers are 20 something and 30 something home-owning parents with growing families. Many look to more modern developments for the perfect balance of access to decent primary schools, commutability and lifestyle. For landlords looking to buy within Aylesbury, they face stiff competition from these 20/30 something families, making the three bedroom Aylesbury home massively in demand, often attracting spirited offers and selling within weeks of listing. This mix of homebuyers and landlords is a pressure point in the Aylesbury property market.  Again, if you are a landlord, call me and I will show you areas with decent returns where you aren’t in so much competition with young Aylesbury family homebuyers.

Yet, the cost of an additional bedroom can be too much for some Aylesbury buyers. It is quite challenging moving home the first time, but to then find you are priced out on the next move up the ladder can be quite disconcerting, with families often having to move to a different part of town to get the bigger home they need.

Nevertheless, that’s the place many homeowners find themselves in with the cost of the additional bedroom being too much to bear. To those buying their home for the first time, all I suggest is they not only consider the mortgage payments and other costs of their first home, but also do their homework into their next rung up the Aylesbury property ladder. Thinking about it now will keep you ahead of the game in the future; as your number of bedrooms, family property needs and lifestyle wants change.

..and Aylesbury landlords – well these changes in the way people live also mean there are opportunities to be had in the Aylesbury rental market. Many Aylesbury landlords are starting to pick my brain on this.

Aylesbury Buy-to-Let Return / Yields – 1.9% to 6.6% a year

The mind-set and tactics you employ to buy your first Aylesbury buy to let property needs to be different to the tactics and methodology of buying a home for yourself to live in. The main difference is when purchasing your own property, you may well pay a little more to get the home you (and your family) want, and are less likely to compromise. When buying for your own use, it is only human nature you will want the best, so that quite often it is at the top end of your budget (because as my parents always used to tell me – you get what you pay for in this world!).

Yet with a buy to let property, if your goal is a higher rental return – a higher price doesn’t always equate to higher monthly returns – in fact quite the opposite. Inexpensive Aylesbury properties can bring in bigger monthly returns. Most landlords use the phrase ‘yield’ instead of monthly return. To calculate the yield on a buy to let property one basically takes the monthly rent, multiplies it by 12 to get the annual rent and then divides it by the value of the property.

This means, if one increases the value of the property using this calculation, the subsequent yield drops. Or to put it another way, if a Aylesbury buy to let landlord has the decision of two properties that create the same amount of monthly rent, the landlord can increase their rental yield by selecting the lower priced property.

To give you an idea of the sort of returns in Aylesbury...

Now of course these are averages and there will always be properties outside the lower and upper ranges in yields: they are a fair representation of the gross yields you can expect in the Aylesbury area.

As we move forward, with the total amount of buy to let mortgages amounting to £199,310,614,000 in the country, landlords need to be aware of the investment performance of their property, especially in the era of tax increases and tax relief reductions. Landlords are looking to maximise their yield - and are doing so by buying cheaper properties.

However, before everyone in Aylesbury starts selling their upmarket properties and buying cheap ones, yield isn’t the only factor when deciding on what Aylesbury buy to let property to buy.  Void periods (i.e. the time when there isn’t a tenant in the property between tenancies) are an important factor and those properties at the cheaper end of the rental spectrum can suffer higher void periods too. Apartments can also have service charges and ground rents that aren’t accounted for in these gross yields. Landlords can also make money if the value of the property goes up and for those Aylesbury landlords who are looking for capital growth, an altered investment strategy may be required.

In Aylesbury, for example, over the last 20 years, this is how the average price paid for the four different types of Aylesbury property have changed…

·         Aylesbury Detached Properties have increased in value by 236.7% 

·         Aylesbury Semi-Detached Properties have increased in value by 291.6%

·         Aylesbury Terraced Properties have increased in value by 295.7%

·         Aylesbury Apartments have increased in value by 288.9%

It is very much a balancing act of yield, capital growth and void periods when buying in Aylesbury. Every landlord’s investment strategy is unique to them. If you would like a fresh pair of eyes to look at your portfolio, be you a private landlord that doesn’t use a letting agent or a landlord that uses one of my competitors – then feel free to drop in and let’s have a chat.

Decreasing Numbers of Younger Homeowners in Aylesbury

James Taylor, 34-year-old father of two from Aylesbury, was out house hunting. It was a pleasant August Saturday afternoon, and our man cycles along on his bike. He cycles up a street, where he spots a few retired mature neighbours, chatting to each other over the garden fence. He leans his bicycle against a lamppost and launches softly into his property search.

“Anyone on the road contemplating moving?” James asks, “I am not a landlord or developer, I’m just an Aylesbury bloke trying to get out of renting, buy a house, do it up and live in it with my wife and two children”

“The only way I will leave here is in a box”, answers an 80-something lady, wearing her fading Paisley patterned housecoat from the 1970’s.

“I‘ve lived here since before you were born, its lovely up here .. we aren’t moving, are we Doris?” (as her neighbour sagely shook his head at his wife).

James, like many Aylesbury people born in the late 1970’s to the early 1990’s, is keen to get a slice of prime Aylesbury real estate. Yet people like James in Generation Y (or the Millennials as some people call them i.e. born between 1977 and 1994 and needing family housing now) are discovering, as each year passes by, they are becoming more neglected and ignored when it comes to moving up the property ladder.

Looking at the graph for the UK as whole …

Over 75 percent of Brits aged 65 and above (the baby boomers) are owner-occupiers, the biggest share since records began and a proportional rise of over 48.3% since the early 1980’s. Looking at those Baby Boomers (the current 65+year olds)  .. and roll the clock back 36 years (to when they were in their 30’s and 40’s and two thirds (65.6%) of them owned their own home.

Whilst today, just under a half of 25 to 49 year olds (47.3%) own their own home.

However, the biggest drop has been in the 18 to 24-year old’s, where homeownership has dropped from a third (32%) in the 1980’s to less than one in ten (8.9%) today. Looking at the Aylesbury statistics, the numbers make even more interesting reading.

Government policy contributes to the generational stalemate. Stamp Duty rules prevent older Brits from moving as the price of land and planning rules make it harder to build affordable bungalows that are attractive to members of the older generation who want to move.

The average value of an acre of prime building land in the UK is between £750,000 and £800,000 per acre. Bungalows are the favoured option for the older generation, but the problem is bungalows take up too much land to make them profitable for new homes builders. The housing market is gridlocked with youngsters wanting to get on (then move up) the property ladder whilst the older generation, who want to move from their larger houses to smaller, more modern bungalows, can’t. The problem is – there simply aren’t enough bungalows being built and the high price of land, means they are prohibitive to build.

So, what is my point? Well, all I would say to the homeowners of Aylesbury is that one solution could be to start to talk to your local councillors, so they can mould the planners’ thoughts and the local authority thinking in setting land aside for bungalows instead of two up two down starter homes? That would free the impasse at the top of the property ladder (i.e. mature people living in big houses but unable to move anywhere), releasing the middle aged gridlocked people in the ladder to move up, thus releasing more existing starter homes for the younger generation.   

… and to you James … the wandering new home searcher – if things are going to change, it will be years before they do .. so keep going out and spreading the word of your search for a new home for your family.

14.2% Drop in Aylesbury People Moving Home in the Last 10 Years

I find the most interesting bits in newspapers are their commentaries on the British Housing Market. Some talk about property prices, whilst others discuss the younger generation grappling to get a foot-hold on the property ladder with difficulties of saving up for the deposit.  Others feature articles about the severe lack of new homes being built (which is especially true in Aylesbury!).  A group of people that don’t often get any column inches however are those existing homeowners who can’t move! 

Back in the early 2000’s, between 1m and 1.3m people moved each year in England and Wales, peaking at 1,349,306 home-moves (i.e. house sales) in 2002.  However, the ‘credit crunch’ hit in 2008 and the number of house sales fell to 624,994 in 2009.  Since then this has steadily recovered, albeit to a more ‘respectable’ 899,708 properties by 2016.  This means there are around 450,000 fewer house sales (house-moves) each year compared to the noughties.  The question is ... why are there fewer house sales?

To answer that, we need to go back 50 years.  Inflation was high in the late 1960’s, 70’s and early 80’s.  To combat this, the Government raised interest rates to a high level in a bid to lower inflation.  Higher interest rates meant the householders monthly mortgage payments were higher, meaning mortgages took a large proportion of the homeowner’s household budget. However, this wasn’t all bad news since inflation tends to erode mortgage debt in ‘real spending power terms’.  Consequently, as wages grew (to keep up with inflation), this allowed home owners to get even bigger mortgages.  At the same time their mortgage debt was decreasing, therefore allowing them to move up the property ladder quicker. 

Roll the clock on to the late 1990’s and the early Noughties, and things had changed.  UK interest rates tumbled as UK inflation dropped.  Lower interest rates and low inflation, especially in the five years 2000 to 2005, meant we saw double digit growth in the value of UK property.  This inevitably meant all the home owner’s equity grew significantly, meaning people could continue to move up the property ladder (even without the effects of inflation).

This snowball effect of significant numbers moving house continued into the mid noughties (2004 to 2007), as Banks and Building Society’s slackened their lending criteria.  [You will probably remember the 125% loan to value Northern Rock Mortgages that could be obtained with just a note from your Mum!!].  This  meant home movers could borrow even more to move up the property ladder.

So, now it’s 2017 and things have changed yet again!

You would think that with ultra-low interest rates at 0.25% (a 320-year low) the number of people moving would be booming – wouldn’t you?  However, this has not been the case.  Less people are moving because:

(1) low wage growth of 1.1% per annum 

(2) the tougher mortgage rules since 2014 

(3) sporadic property price growth in the last few years

(4) high property values comparative to salaries (I talked about this a couple of months ago)

What does this translate to in pure numbers locally? 

In 2007, 4,453 properties sold in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area and last year, in 2016 only 3,819 properties sold – a drop of 14.24%.

Therefore, we have just over 630 less households moving in the Aylesbury and surrounding Council area each year.  Now of that number, it is recognised throughout the property industry around fourth fifths of them are homeowners with a mortgage. That means there are around 520 mortgaged households a year (fourth fifths of the figure of 630) in the Aylesbury and surrounding council area that would have moved 10 years ago, but won’t this year. 

The reason they can’t/won’t move can be split down into different categories, explained in a recent report by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). So, of those estimated 520 annual Aylesbury (and surrounding area) non-movers, based on that CML report -

1. There are around 187 households a year that aren’t moving due to a fall in the number of mortgaged owner occupiers (i.e. demographics).

2. I then estimate another 73 households a year are of the older generation mortgaged owner occupiers. As they are increasingly getting older, older people don’t tend to move, regardless of what is happening to the property market (i.e. lifestyle).

3. Then, I estimate 31 households of our Aylesbury (and surrounding area) annual non-movers will mirror the rising number of high equity owner occupiers, who previously would have moved with a mortgage but now move as cash buyers (i.e. high house price growth).

4. I believe there are 229 Aylesbury (and surrounding area) mortgaged homeowners that are unable to move because of the financing of the new mortgage or keeping within the new rules of mortgage affordability that came into play in 2014 (i.e. mortgage).

The first three above are beyond the Government or Bank of England control.  However could there be some influence exerted to help the non-movers because of financing the new mortgage and keeping within the new rules of mortgage affordability? If Aylesbury property values were lower, this would decrease the size of each step up the property ladder.  This would mean the opportunity cost of increasing their mortgage would reduce (i.e. opportunity cost = the step up in their mortgage payments between their existing and future new mortgage) and they would be able to move to more upmarket properties.

Then there is the mortgage rules, but before we all start demanding a relaxation in lending criteria for the banks, do we want to return to free and easy mortgages 125% Northern Rock footloose and fancy-free mortgage lending that seemed to be available in the mid 2000’s ... available at a drop of hat and three tokens from a cereal packet?

We all know what happened with Northern Rock …. Your thoughts would be welcome on this topic.