Saturday, 6 August 2016

Post Brexit - Aylesbury Property Prices set to drop £30,400 in the next 12 months? 

Excluding central London which is another world, most commentators are predicting prices will be affected by around 10%. So looking at the commentators’ thoughts in more detail, property values in Aylesbury will be 10% lower than they would have been if we had not voted to leave the EU. 
As the average value of a property in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area is £303,800, this means property values are set to drop for the average Aylesbury property by £30,380.
... but before we all go into panic mode ... the devil is always in the detail.

Property values today, according to the Land Registry are 15.66% higher than a year ago in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area. The 12 months before that they rose by 9.35% and the 12 months before that, they rose by 5.42%. If we had not voted to leave, we could have safely assumed Aylesbury House prices would have been 15% higher by the Summer of 2017.
… and that is the point, we will not see a house price crash in Aylesbury, it is just that house prices in a years time will only be 5% higher than they are now (i.e. 15% less the 10% lower figure because of Brexit). Let’s look at the historic figures and how that compares to today’s figures for the Aylesbury Vale district Council area and Aylesbury as a whole.

Average Value of a property 20 years ago                             £  70,100
Average Value of a property 10 years ago                             £208,600
Average Value of a property 2 years ago                               £240,200
Average Value of a property 1 year ago                                 £262,700
Average Value of a property today                                          £303,800
Projected Value of a property in 12 months’ time               £319,000 

The average value of an Aylesbury property will be £15,200 higher in 12 months’ time than today. 

That is not to say Aylesbury property prices might not dip slightly in the run up to Christmas (they always have done just about every year since 2000 and most of those were boom years) ... but in 12 months’ time this is where Aylesbury property values will be.
Whilst the UK's vote for Brexit has created an uncertainty in the Aylesbury housing market, there is no need to panic and prospective buyers should merely use common sense about their purchases. I always say to people to be prudent and if you are taking out a mortgage, at some stage during the life of that mortgage, circumstances will be difficult. We will not have a 2008 Credit crunch fire sale of properties. There will not be distressed sales.
There will be asking price reductions as agents reduce the price of their existing stock which was ambitiously priced to start with to attract new business. 

... and Aylesbury landlords? Yields could rise if Aylesbury rents continue to grow, and this might also make it easier for landlords to obtain mortgages, as the income would cover more of the interest cost. If prices were to level  that could help Aylesbury landlords add to their portfolio, as rental demand for Aylesbury property is expected to stay strong as more people find it more and more difficult to obtain mortgages.
For more thoughts on the Aylesbury Property market ... visit the Aylesbury Property Blog


Frozen yoghurt...yum!