Well we can’t ignore the rest of the UK, and we can’t forget that the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty reforms have polarised the London property markets above £1,000,000 because at the top end of the market, punitive Stamp Duty charges will dampen demand further. While the Bank of England warned of the growing London property price bubble in the Spring of 2014, talk of a recovery in some areas was premature. In 2015, irrespective of where you are in the UK, one story will unite the patchwork quilt of markets – really low levels of property coming on to the market.
The question you should be asking though is not only what is happening to property prices, but which price band exactly is selling? I like to keep an eye on the property market in Aylesbury on a daily basis because it enables me to give the best advice and opinion on what (or not) to buy in Aylesbury.
If you look at Aylesbury and split the property market into four equal sized price bands (in terms of households), each price band would have around 25% of the property in Aylesbury, from the lowest in value (the bottom 25%) all the way through to the highest 25% (in terms of value). Over the last two months (63 days to be precise), in the lowest quartile, (those with prices under £165k) 85 properties have come on to the market in Aylesbury and 44.7% of them are sold stc (38 properties have a buyer).The next quartile, between £165k-£220k, of the 140 properties that came on to the market, 45% of them (63 properties) have a buyer. The £220k-£310k price range has seen 136 properties come on to the market, and 46.3% of the properties have a buyer (63 properties). The most expensive 25%, the £310k plus range, has seen 34 of the 116 properties that came on to the market find buyers (29.3%). Fascinating don’t you think?
The next three months’ activity will be crucial in understanding which way the market will go this year and I honestly believe we will not see any increase in the levels of stock this side of the election. Election or no election, people will always need a roof over their head and that is why the property market has rode the storms of Oil crisis in the 1970’s, the 1980’s depression, Black Monday in the 1990’s, and latterly the Credit Crunch together with the various house price crashes of 1973, 1987 and 2008. And why? Because Britain’s chronic lack of housing will continue to prop up house prices and prevent a post spike crash... there is always a silver lining when it comes to the property market!
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