I was having an interesting chat the other day with a couple
of solicitors at an Aylesbury business networking event, when the subject of a
lack of property for first time buyers came into the conversation. I followed the chat up with an email with my
findings, findings that I would like to share with you today.
At the time of the last census in 2011, 3,401,675 properties
in England were privately rented, of which it is estimated, over 1.25 million
were owned by private landlords. The rapid growth of buy-to-let is hugely
controversial, especially as only ten years before that, there were only 1,798,864
properties under private renting in England. Buy to let landlords have been
held responsible for forcing up property prices and preventing our younger
generations from being able to buy. There is also growing resentment towards
the billions of pounds in tax relief (estimated to be nearly £10 billion)
landlords claim on their mortgage interest -tax relief which is not available
to homeowners.
They may be asset rich thanks to recently rising property
values, but let us not make the landlords the bogymen they could easily be. Despite
all these benefits enjoyed by private landlords, let us not forget the good
they have done, especially in Aylesbury.
Property values today in Aylesbury are still 9.9% above the
2007 property boom levels (2007 being the peak of last property boom before
everything dropped in 2008/9), yet inflation has risen by 26% in the same time
frame, so in real terms, properties today are 16.1% CHEAPER than they were in
2007. Just think how low they would be without landlords buying all those
rental properties in the town. Interest rates are at an all time low and first
time buyers only need to save a £9,500 deposit to secure a 2 bed in the Willows Development with a 95%
mortgage. Forget what the papers say, first time buyers can borrow money
relatively easily on a 95% mortgage and nine times out of ten, it’s cheaper to
buy than rent. So why aren’t people buying?
The number of people choosing to rent, either for lifestyle
or economic reasons, has grown over the last 15 years. I also believe they will
continue to grow for some time to come (as does every report on the subject).
In fact I would go as far to predict the number of rental properties in Aylesbury
will have risen from the 8,096 properties recorded in 2011 to 11,700 by 2021.
Sounds fanciful? Well in 2001, there were only 4,125 privately rented
properties in Aylesbury.
It is a fact that we as a Country are more and more turning
into a European model when it comes to homeownership, where the norm is renting
for the first ten years, as opposed to the norm from the 1960’s to 1990’s,
where first time buyers were encouraged to buy as soon as they got a job.
Tenants will also
feel the benefit from potential changes in the market. The likelihood of
interest rate increases in late 2015, existing economic conditions, combined
with the uncertainty of new Government manifestos following the General
Election in May will result in low demand for people to buy yet also put a
dampening effect on increases in rent. As long as landlords buy the right sort
of property, that allows for a reasonable yield, decent capital growth,
everyone will be a winner. If you want a
chat about what would make the best sort of property that would offer that in Aylesbury,
then please email me on ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk or visit my Aylesbury
Property Blog
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