Now on the run up to the vote on the 23rd of June, I predict the
‘in’ camp will start to scare homeowners with forecasts of negative equity, and
the ‘out’ camp will appeal to the 20
somethings, who have been priced out of the property market with the
prospect of a new era of inexpensive housing, should the fears of central
London estate agents and developers, who believe the bottom will fall out of
the market if we do leave, become real. The reason the Mayfair’s,
Knightsbridge’s, and Kensington’s of central London are attractive to foreign
buyers are political and economic stability, an open and honest legal system and
a lively cultural life. None of that is threatened by Brexit.
... But again, we are in Aylesbury and central
London is 51 miles away. We are home to Jonathan Dimbleby, the Roald Dahl
Children’s Gallery and the Aylesbury Duck, and whilst the central London
property market exploded after 2009, that explosion really did not affect the Aylesbury
property market. So, putting central London aside, what would an ‘in’ or ‘out’
vote really mean for the 19,000 property owners of Aylesbury?
Initially, over the coming months, on the run up to
referendum, I believe it will be like the run up to last year’s General
Election. With the short-term uncertainty in the country, quite often, big
decisions are put on ice and people are less likely to make big money purchases
i.e. buy a property. However, in the
four months up to last year’s Election, property values in Aylesbury increased
by 0.66%, not bad for a country that thought it might get a hung parliament!
Post vote, should the UK opt to
leave Brussels, there would be a much more noteworthy impact. I believe that a
vote to stay in the EU would see the Aylesbury property market return to a status
quo very quickly, but the contrasting result could lead to some changes. The principal
threat to the Aylesbury (and UK) housing market could be an upward variation in
interest rates. This could theoretically see the cost of mortgages grow swiftly,
pricing many out of the market … but then two thirds of landlords buy without a
mortgage, so that will not affect them. According to the Bank of England,
80.33% of all new mortgages taken out in 2015 were fixed rate. Looking at all
mortgages as a whole, according to the Bank of England, 44% of all UK
mortgagees have a fixed rate mortgage, but 56% don’t, so if you are not on a
fixed rate ... talk to your mortgage broker now, because they can
only go in one direction!
In reality, if I really knew what will happen, I would
not be a letting agent in Aylesbury, but a City Whiz Kid in London earning
millions. I suspect whatever decision the electorate of Aylesbury and the
country as a whole makes, over the long term it will not have a major effect on
the Aylesbury property market. We have seen off ‘the end of the world’ credit
crunch of 2008/9 and subsequent property crash, the 1988 Nigel Lawson induced
post dual-MIRAS property crash, the 1979 Winter of Discontent property crash,
the 1974 oil crisis that stimulated another property crash ... we can even go
back nearly a century with the 1926 post General Strike slump in property prices...
Today, property prices are 127.87% higher than 20
years ago in Aylesbury and are 3.6% higher than 12 months ago. So, make your
own decision on 23rd of June 2016 safe in the knowledge that
whatever the result, there might be some short term volatility in the Aylesbury
property market, but in the long term (and property investment is a long term
strategy) there are not enough houses in Aylesbury to live in either to buy or
rent … and until the Government allow more properties to be built – the Aylesbury
property market, will be just fine ... even if it has a little blip in the summer.
For more advice and opinion on the Aylesbury property market,
even where those buy to let bargains could be found now ... visit theaylesburypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/  |
| Did someone say 'treat'! |
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