Looking at the newspapers between Christmas and New Year,
it seemed that this year’s sport in the column inches was to predict the future
of the British housing market. So to go along with that these are my thoughts
on the Aylesbury property market.
With the average 5-year fixed rate mortgage at 1.98% (down from
3.47% in 2014) and 2-year fixed rate at 1.47% (down from 2.37% in 2014),
mortgage interest rates offered by lenders are at an all-time low (even with
the slight increase on the Bank of England base rate a few months ago). Added
to this, there has been a low unemployment rate of 3% in Aylesbury, which has contributed
to maintain a decent level demand for property in Aylesbury in 2017 (interestingly – an impressive 1,782 Aylesbury
properties were sold in last 12 months), whilst finally, the number of
properties for sale in the town has remained limited, thus providing support
for Aylesbury house prices, meaning …
Aylesbury Property Values are 7.5% higher than a year ago
However, moving into 2018, there will be greater pressures on people’s
incomes as inflation starts to eat into real wage packet growth, which will
wield a snowballing strain on consumer confidence. Interestingly though,
information from the website Rightmove suggested over a third of property it
had on its books in October and November had their asking prices reduced,
the highest percentage of asking price reductions in the same time frame, over five
years. Still, a lot of that could have been house-sellers being overly
optimistic with their initial pricing.
In terms of what will happen to Aylesbury property values
in the next 12 months, a lot will be contingent
on the type of Brexit we have and the impact on the whole of the UK economy. A
lot of people will talk about the Central London property market in the coming
year, and if the banking and finance sectors are negatively affected with a
poor Brexit deal, then the London market is likely to see more of an impact.
Nevertheless, the bottom line is Aylesbury homeowners and Aylesbury
landlords should be aware of what happens in the rollercoaster housing market
of Central London, but not panic if prices do drop suddenly there in 2018. Over
the last 8 years, the Central London property market has been in a world of its
own (Central London house prices have grown by 89.6% in those last 8 years,
whilst in Aylesbury, they have only risen by 57.23%). So we might see a heavy
correction in the Capital, whilst more locally, something a little more
subdued.
Hindsight is always better than foresight and predicting
anything economic is all well and good when you know what is around the corner.
At least we have the Brexit divorce settlement sorted and, as the UK economy
and the UK housing market are intertwined, it all depends on how we deal as a Country
with the Brexit issue. However, we have been through the global financial
crisis reasonably intact ... I am sure we can get through this together as
well?
Oh, and house prices in Aylesbury over the next 12 months? I
believe they will end up between 0.4% higher and 1.6% higher, although it will
probably be a bumpy ride to get to those sorts of figures.
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