If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog
post, please visit my blog http://theaylesburypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/
and scroll back to late June to find it.
The picture is now
becoming a little clearer as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly,
the Aylesbury Property Market.
In case you were not aware, the residents of the Aylesbury Vale
District Council area voted as follows ..
Aylesbury Vale District Council Remain Votes 52,877 (49.5% of
the vote)
Aylesbury Vale District Council Leave Votes 53,956 (50.5%
of the vote)
Aylesbury Vale
District Council Turnout 78.4%
I have been reading that there
is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote
Remain than their parents and grandparents. The polling industry's techniques
may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General
Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest
there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.
The average age of an Aylesbury resident is 39.1 years old,
which is below the national average of 39.3, which might go some way to back up
the way Aylesbury voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were
a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty.
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in
the Aylesbury Vale District Council area, of
the 50,301 properties that are owned in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area
(Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the
age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 16 to 34 homeowners
4,410 or 8.8% (Nationally
9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 16,325 or 32.4% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 16,481 or 32.8% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners 13,085 or 26.0% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of
older homeowners, you might think all the Aylesbury Vale District Council area
homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would
vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?
But there is a risk in oversimplifying
this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country
voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the
way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of
education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on
the way the various parts of the UK voted.
So do not assume everyone over the age
of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and do not assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because
many did not!
.. and the Aylesbury Property Market –
well here at the coal face things seem to be returning to ‘normal’ rather
quickly. The rules of supply and demand have not changed. The supply of property
is so weak that demand would have to fall off a cliff to make any real impact
and that is not happening. Mortgages are still available at the best rates we
have seen for years.
Hopefully we will see an end to the
speculative pricing of some agents, we are certainly seeing many properties
being reduced in price…but this is usually from an overly high starting point. Good
property priced correctly is still selling well to both first time buyers and
investors.
Not sure what strategy is appropriate for the post Brexit market? Pop in and talk it through when you are passing...
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| Nala with siblings at Fairford Leys dog show |
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