Tuesday, 19 July 2016

91.2% of Aylesbury Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Aylesbury Property Market

Well it has been nearly a month since the Referendum vote and we have all had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article all but finished only to be presented with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.  

If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog http://theaylesburypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/  and scroll back to late June to find it.
 The picture is now becoming a little clearer as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Aylesbury Property Market.
In case you were not aware, the residents of the Aylesbury Vale District Council area voted as follows .. 
Aylesbury Vale District Council          Remain Votes  52,877             (49.5% of the vote)
Aylesbury Vale District Council          Leave Votes     53,956             (50.5% of the vote)
Aylesbury Vale District Council Turnout         78.4% 

I have been reading that there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents. The polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU. 

The average age of an Aylesbury resident is 39.1 years old, which is below the national average of 39.3, which might go some way to back up the way Aylesbury voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty.  

Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area, of the 50,301 properties that are owned in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture. 
Age 16 to 34 homeowners      4,410    or       8.8%  (Nationally 9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners    16,325    or     32.4%  (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners    16,481    or     32.8%  (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners         13,085    or     26.0%  (Nationally 30.5%) 

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Aylesbury Vale District Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?  

But there is a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.  

So do not assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and do not assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many did not! 
.. and the Aylesbury Property Market – well here at the coal face things seem to be returning to ‘normal’ rather quickly. The rules of supply and demand have not changed. The supply of property is so weak that demand would have to fall off a cliff to make any real impact and that is not happening. Mortgages are still available at the best rates we have seen for years.

Hopefully we will see an end to the speculative pricing of some agents, we are certainly seeing many properties being reduced in price…but this is usually from an overly high starting point. Good property priced correctly is still selling well to both first time buyers and investors.
Not sure what strategy is appropriate for the post Brexit market? Pop in and talk it through when you are passing...
Nala with siblings at Fairford Leys dog show