Population in the Aylesbury area set to rise to 231,200 by 2036

Aylesbury faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing is not keeping up. With the average age of an Aylesbury person being 39.1 years (compared to the South East average of 40.0 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Aylesbury is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.

Some of my colleagues work closely with Durham University and they have kindly produced some statistics specifically for the Aylesbury Vale District Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics, their population projections make some startling reading…

For the Aylesbury Vale District Council area ... these are the statistics and future forecasts 

2016 population           189,862

2021 population           202,376

2026 population           213,556

2031 population           222,887

2036 population           231,241

 

The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...

 

We need just over 21,500 additional new properties to be built

in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area over the next 20 years. 

Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Aylesbury, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Aylesbury property values over the last six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Aylesbury). 

Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancies mean houses remain in the same hands for longer. 

The swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more competition for the young than for mature population.  It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet an expanding population by building on green belt – that most Politian’s have not got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Aylesbury that could accommodate 21,500 properties in the next 20 years.

In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will continue to grow in Aylesbury (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher). 
There is talk from various sections of the media that prices are going to fall in both the rental and sales market as a result of Brexit. Following the rules of supply and demand I struggle to see how this could be so. The demand remains high and is likely to do so, supply of stock remains sluggish…these two factors will continue to support prices.
If you want to discuss your post Brexit investment strategy just email me at ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

Is there really a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow?