Brexit and Aylesbury Property market – 49% more properties on the market

April Fools Day was no joke for some landlords, as they rushed their buy to let property purchases throughout late March to beat the extra 3% stamp duty George Osborne imposed on buy to let properties after the 31^st March 2016. We were successful in getting one property exchanged at 6.30pm on the day of the deadline…lots of sweet talking required to get solicitors to do that one!! Because some investors brought forward their 2016 property purchases to save the extra tax, all of us have noticed, demand to buy in April and May from these landlords has eased, although demand remains strong driven by lack of supply.  

Then we have the Brexit issue, which is also a tempering effect on the Aylesbury property market – although if you recall I wrote about this a few weeks ago, and whilst an exit will have an effect – it won’t be the end of the world scenario some commentators are suggesting. In another article I wrote previously, I spoke of the growth rate of Aylesbury property values, and whilst the rate of growth is slowing, Aylesbury property values are still 10.3% higher year on year, albeit the growth rate month on month has started to moderate when compared to the heady days of month on month rises of 2014 and 2015. A very recent members survey of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors states that only 17% of members believed property values would increase over the next Quarter compared to 44% at the end of 2015. It is worth noting that the growth has been more significant in the lower market, sub £275,000, where the demand has been strongest from investors and first time buyers.

All this had led to an increase in the number of properties for sale. For example in the HP19 postcode, which mainly comprises  Fairford Leys, Prebendal Farm, Quarrendon and Watermead there were 128 properties for sale in the postcode in December (of which 29 came on to the market for the first time). In January, February and March, 246 properties came onto the market in the postcode district (or an average of 82 per month), meaning by end of the first Quarter, there were 191 properties available for homeowners and landlords alike to buy in HP19 (i.e. a rise of 49.2% more properties for sale). These figures are mirrored in neighbouring postcodes throughout the Aylesbury area.

 On the face of it, this easing should be bad news for the 47,767 Aylesbury homeowners, but nothing could be further from the truth. The majority of homeowners that move, move up market, (i.e. from a flat to terrace/town house, then a semi and then detached), so whilst  you would have achieved a top dollar figure for your property, you would would have had to have paid an even higher top dollar to secure the one you wanted to buy. The Swings and Roundabouts of the Aylesbury Property Market!

 

All the signals suggest that whatever the aftermath of the approaching EU referendum, in the long term, the disparity between demand for Aylesbury property and the supply will still exercise a sturdy and definitive influence on the Aylesbury property market. It would surprise me that if by 2021, whichever way we vote in late June, assuming we don’t have another credit crunch or issues like a major world conflict, property prices will be 20% to 25% higher than they are today. Income from capital growth you can’t get from a bank or Building society savings account!

Ready and waiting for the next treat