50.5% of Aylesbury Voters voted leave – What now for the 23723 Aylesbury Landlords and Homeowners?

It’s 5.50am as I start to type this article and David Dimbleby has just announced the UK will be leaving the EU as the final votes are counted. As most of the polls suggested a Remain Vote, it came as a surprise to most people, including the City. The Pound has dropped 6% this morning after the City Whiz kids got their predictions wrong and MP’s from the Remain camp are using words like “challenging times ahead”. 

.. and now the vote has been made .. what next for the 19022 Aylesbury  homeowners especially the 11918 of those Aylesbury  homeowners with a mortgage?

The Chancellor in the campaign suggested property prices would drop by 18%. Using Treasury estimates, their method of calculating this was tenuous at best, but focused around the abrupt and hasty increase in UK interest rates, which in turn would raise the cost of mortgages, and therefore lower demand for property, causing a drop in property prices… and I would say, yes ... that could happen. 

 

Aylesbury  Property Values

Aylesbury property values may drop in the coming 12 to 18 months – but by 18%! - I am sorry I find that a little pessimistic and believe that figure was rhetoric to get homeowners and landlords to vote in a particular way. But the UK property market is quite a monster.  

Since the last In/Out EU Referendum in June 1975,

property values in Aylesbury  have risen by 2132.9%

(That isn’t a typo) and whilst property prices did drop nationally by 18.7% between the peak of 2007 and bottom of the market in 2009, when one compares property values today in the country, compared to that all-time high of 2007, (the period before the financial crisis of the Credit Crunch of 2008/9) .. they are still up 10.14% higher.

Another Credit Crunch?

And so, notwithstanding the Credit Crunch, the worst global economic outlook since the 1930s and the recession it brought us, a matter of a few years later, the Government were panicking in 2012/3/4 that the housing market was a runaway train. 

Now the same Credit Crunch doom-mongers and Sooth-Sayers that predicted soup kitchens in 2008/9 are predicting Brexit meltdown. Bad news sells newspapers. Stock markets may rise, stock markets may fall, yet the British public continued to buy property in 2009/10 and beyond. Aspiring first time buyers and buy to let landlords dusted themselves down, took a deep breath and carried on buying… because us Brit’s love our Bricks and Mortar ... we need a roof over our head. 

If the value of the pound drops, in the past UK Interest Rates have risen to reverse that drop. However, whilst a cheaper pound will make your pint of Sangria a little more expensive on your Spanish holiday this year and make your brand new BMW pricier ... it will make British exports cheaper! Which is great for the economy.

Interest rates

… and what of interest rates? Since 2009, interest rates have been at 0.5% and lots of people have become accustomed to those sorts of levels. So what if interest rates rise ... end of the world? Interest rates in the 1986/88 property boom were on average 9.25%, in the 1990’s they were on average around 6.5% and in the uber-boom years (when UK property values were rising by 20% a year for three or four straight years across the UK) ... 4.5%. Many of those reading this who are in their 50’s and older will remember interest rates at 15%. I can recall myself having a 12% fixed rate mortgage and being grateful!

But I suspect interest rates will not rise that much anyway, as Matt Carney (Chief of the Bank Of England) knows, raising interest rates causes deflation – which is the last thing the British economy needs at the moment. In fact they have been printing money (aka Quantitative Easing) for the last few years (which causes inflation) to the tune of £375bn a month. A bit of inflation because the pound has slipped on the money markets (not too much mind you) might be a good thing?

 

.. because whilst property values might drop they will bounce back. It’s only a paper loss... because it only becomes real if you sell. And if you have to sell, again as most people move up market when they sell, whilst your property might have dropped by 5% or 10%, the one you want to buy would have dropped by the same 5% to 10% ... and here is the best part – (and work your sums out) you would actually be better off because the more expensive property you would be purchasing would have come down in value (in actual pound notes) than the one you are selling. 

The 4,701 Aylesbury buy to let landlords have nothing to fear , nor do the 11162 tenants living in their properties.

Buy to let is a long term investment. I think there might even be some buy to let bargains in the coming months as some people, irrespective of evidence, panic.  Even if we pull up the drawbridge at Dover and immigration stopped today, the British population will still increase at a rate that will exceed the current property building level. Britain is building 139,600 properties a year, but needs according to the eminent ‘Barker Review of Housing Supply Report’, 250,000 properties a year to even stand still. As the birth rate is increasing, the population is living longer and just under a quarter of all UK households now are occupied by a single person demand is only going up whilst supply is stifled. Greater demand than supply equals higher prices. That is definitely a fact. 

So, what will happen next?

Well, there are many challenges ahead. The country has spoken and we are now in unchartered territory – but we have been through a couple of World Wars, an Oil Crisis, Black Monday, Black Wednesday, 15% interest rates and a Credit Crunch … and we survived! 

And the value of your Aylesbury property? It might have a short term wobble… but in the long term -it’s safe as houses regardless.

 

56.4% of Aylesbury Tenants are White Collar Middle Class

Renting is not like it was in the 1960’s and 70’s, where tenants could not wait to leave their landlords, charging sky-high rents for properties with Second World War wood chip wallpaper, no central heating and drafty windows. Since 1997 with the introduction of buy to let mortgages and a new breed of Aylesbury landlord, the private rented sector in Aylesbury has offered increasingly high quality accommodation for younger Aylesbury households.

So whilst I knew in my own mind that the type and class of tenant has improved over the last 20 years, I had nothing to back that up . According to some detailed statistics from Durham University just released, for the Aylesbury Vale District Council area, the current situation regarding social status of tenants shows some very interesting points. Using the  Demographic ABC1 grade classifications which refer to the social grade definitions (which describe, measure and classify people of different social grade and income and earnings levels, for market research, social commentary, lifestyle statistics, and statistical research and analysis) this is what I found out. 

Of the 13,984 tenants who live in a private rented property in the AVDC area, 23.0% (or 3,217) of those tenants are classified in the AB category (AB Category being Higher and intermediate managerial / administrative / professional occupations), compared to 32.48% owner occupiers who own their property without a mortgage or 5.28% who rent their property from the local authority.

Looking at the C1’s (C1’s being the Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial / administrative / professional occupations), of the already mentioned 13,948 tenants in the area, an impressive 4,670 of them are considered to be in the C1 category (or 33.40%). Again, when compared with the owner occupiers who own their property without a mortgage, that figure stands at 31.03%   and 17.95% who rent their property from the local authority.  So, if we use the conventional measurements recorded by the white-collar “ABC1” i.e. middle class ….

 

This means 56.40% of tenants are considered middle class in Aylesbury  

I could go through all of the social categories through to ‘E’, but I do not want to bore you with too many numbers. The fact is that private tenants are moving up the social ladder and whilst back in the 1960’s and 70’s, the private rented sector in Aylesbury (and the rest of the UK) had been viewed as a temporary tenure for 20 somethings before they bought a property, the increase in renting in Aylesbury, which I have talked about many times in the Aylesbury Property Market Blog may be a reflection of increasing difficulty for this group in accessing other tenures, but may also be a reflection that people now choose to rent long term instead? 

Aylesbury Landlords need to be aware that tenants now demand more from their properties, the agent and their landlord and whilst affordability for first-time buyers and tighter controls on lending may mean that potential first-time buyers are in the private rented sector for longer, they will still pay ‘top dollar’ rent for a ‘top dollar’ property.

It is however essential for any landlord to be aware what 'top dollar' rent actually is. Overpricing your rental property can seriously damage your wealth. ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

All this talk about Brexit is quite tiring

An Aylesbury landlord’s tale…

Marketing your property correctly is a key factor when managing your investment. You want the best possible rent but you also want a good quality long term tenant who can move in at a time that minimises any void period. Often there are compromises to be considered… Got a great tenant but time scale is a bit adrift? Timing great but tenant wants an appliance supplied that you had not budgeted for? These issues can make a difference to the short and long term costs i.e. on your return from your investment.

One of my tenants in a Fairford Leys detached coach house gave notice to leave in May. I was about to go on holiday so quickly put it on the market at £725.00pcm and jumped into my cab for the airport. The kitchen has recently been refitted and I was keen to see an enhanced rent over and above the rent I was getting from a long term tenancy. After all the market is very strong and of course you can let anything at the price you want can’t you?

 

The original photo was bleak and unattractive

 

Back from holiday 2 weeks later I reviewed the progress. We had had only 3 viewings and no one keen to take the property. I realised very quickly that I had acted in haste and ignored my own advice that I dispense every day.

Do your price research properly and do not think you can buck the market trends unless you are letting something exceptional. (I reduced the price £30 to £695, the lettings market is more dynamic than the sales market and a small reduction is often enough to make a real difference).

Make sure the photographs are good quality and up to date. (I had no photos of my nice new kitchen, instead relying on the strength of the market to be enough to find me a tenant).

Make sure the description is well written and in full with room sizes and descriptions. Make the property sound attractive by pointing out its main features. (In this case a private garden, multiple parking spaces, detached dwelling etc.).

These adjustments were put in place very quickly with a significant response. Six viewings across four days and two applicants that were keen to take the property…I had a choice of two great applicants with flexible timescales, the ideal scenario for any landlord.

So you can see how a busy estate agent can sometimes not get the marketing right even when the property is their own. I guess I could claim to be too busy looking after my landlords to look after myself properly!

If you are trying to let and not getting the right results consider the action above or ask why your agent has not done so.

Incidentally we have now invested £1000 in a new camera to upgrade our photographic capability and floorplans have been ordered for some of our larger stock to enhance the marketing.

Are you, or do want to be, a local landlord/investor? Pop in to my office in Temple Street when you are passing, my advice and knowledge are free and my coffee is passable.

ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

 

Asking Prices of Aylesbury Property up 9% since December

I had an interesting question from a homeowner in Bedgrove yesterday who asked me the difference between asking prices and values and why it mattered. When it comes to selling property, there must be agreement between the purchaser (buyer) and seller (vendor) for a property sale to take place. The value a buyer applies to a property can massively differ from the value a seller or mortgage company places upon it. The seller, the buyer and the mortgage company must find an agreeable value to assign to a property so the sale can proceed.

In many of my articles about the Aylesbury property market, I talk about values, i.e. what property in Aylesbury actually sells for, but I have not spoken about asking prices for while. Now asking prices are important as they are one of the four key matters a potential buyer will judge your property on (the others being location, bedrooms and type). Price yourself too high and you will put off buyers. So let’s take a look at the Aylesbury numbers.

Over the last 12 months asking prices (i.e. the price advertised in the paper and on Rightmove) in Aylesbury have increased by 15%, taking the average asking price in Aylesbury to £294,200 (up from £255,200 twelve months ago). 

 

Interestingly though, when we look at, say detached and terraced property, a slightly different picture appears. Twelve months ago, the average asking price for a detached house in Aylesbury was £444,500 and today its £493,100 (a rise of 11%); whilst over the same 12 month period, the average asking price of a terraced property was £244,900 a year ago, and today its £278,600 (a rise of 14%). 

My research shows that the supply of property for sale in Aylesbury is beginning to increase. In December 2015, there were 235 on the market in Aylesbury today there are 291 properties on the market (up 24%). This will mean homeowners looking to sell will need to be conscious of how their property compares against others on the Aylesbury property market. The Aylesbury property market still has substantial momentum and sufficient demand remains to provoke more modest asking price rises. This noteworthy increase in supply since Christmas is currently providing more choice for buyers and is tempering asking price rises - and here is the devil in the detail - 9% of the overall 15% annual figure (mentioned in para 3) has appeared since December.

… And here is the second point to make. Asking prices are one thing, but what a property sells for (i.e. value) is a completely different matter. These are the average prices achieved (i.e. what they sold for or the average value) for property in Aylesbury over the last 12 months...

·         Overall Average          £301,500

·         Detached                     £465,300

·         Terraced                      £253,000 

You can quite clearly see, there is a difference between what people are asking for property and what it is selling for. The underlying fundamentals of low interest mortgages and tight supply remain prevalent in the Aylesbury property market. The number one lesson has to be this ... if you want to sell, be realistic with your pricing.

If you are an investor looking to buy check your numbers…I have used averages here but some sectors of the market buck this trend. If you are buying at the lower end of the market you will be facing competition from other investors, first time buyers, buyers moving down market etc. Given this you are more likely to have to pay asking price…but only if it is in line with the market. Many agents are pricing high to attract new business, don’t get caught out. I will happily research the right price for you…just email me the details or property link. ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk 

 

Husky on the move!

 

8.45% slump in Buckinghamshire Property Transactions

In this post credit crunch world of sub terrain low interest and annuity rates , the growth of buy to let since 2009 has been phenomenal. So much so, there has been an evolution in purchase of property in the UK from that of just buying the roof over one’s head to that of a buy to let investment where it is seen as a standalone financial asset to fund current and future (i.e. pensions) investment. So recently, a few days before the release of latest Land Registry data of property transactions, quite a few market pundits were anticipating a huge increase in the number of properties sold in January as the 1^st of April 2016 stamp duty deadline got closer.   

Looking at the most recent set of data from The Land Registry, it seems there has been a drop in the number of completed property sales in the Buckinghamshire County Council area. Year on year, completed property sales in January (the latest set of data released) fell by 8.45% to 574 compared with 627 in January 2015. Nationally, the number is similar, as the number of completed house sales fell by 5% in January 2016 compared with January 2015. Some might say this counters the reports that there was a rush by landlords to buy ‘buy to let’ property ahead of the 1^st April 2016 deadline but where was the stampede that many expected?

Looking even closer to home, in the HP19 postcode in January 2016, 53 properties changed hands, whilst 32 properties did so in January 2015. It’s even more interesting when you look at the average price paid, in January 2016, it was £229,418 yet in January 2015, the average price paid was £216,448. 

Is the buy to let dream over for Aylesbury landlords? 

.. but as ever the devil is in the detail. The 3% stamp duty surcharge for buy to let landlords was announced in the Autumn Statement on the 25^th November 2015. Anyone who has bought a property knows from their offer being accepted to receiving the keys and monies paid is a long drawn out affair, taking on average 8 to 12 weeks, as the Land Registry only get notified upon completion of the sale. We also need to factor in that Solicitors seem to have the last two weeks of December off anyway.  

So if there was a rush in the last few days of November/early December in the Aylesbury property market, we would only see the results of that in the February figures (released in June) and more probably March’s (released in July). 

So why all the doom and gloom? Simple .. bad news sells newspapers and gets the headlines. Let’s be honest, the headline to this article is designed to be eye catching. However, when we look at both the bigger and smaller picture; nationally, property values dropped (month on month) by 0.5%; in the South East region they dropped 0.4%, whilst in Buckinghamshire they rose by 0.8%. The year on year figures tell a completely different story to that.

 

It just goes to show you should look deeper into something before making a judgment! For more  commentary on the Aylesbury property market – please visit the Aylesbury Property Blog  http://theaylesburypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/ or pop in to our Temple Street office when you are passing.

 

There is nothing quite like a good stick retrieved from the river.

 

 

A one bedroom cluster house on the Coppice, Aylesbury, 4.3% yield.

One bedroom houses have sold well over the last year and prices have been strong for sale and to rent. We have been renting this property for some time but the current tenant is now leaving.
 It was redecorated and the kitchen refitted two years ago but the décor and carpets will now require some updating. The electric heating has been removed and the property now has gas central heating. The big benefit for a cluster house is the enclosed garden to front, there is ample parking nearby.

 

Priced at £179,950 this property is not available in the open market yet but is being circulated to investors and landlords like yourself. Achievable rent is £650 comfortably, giving a yield of 4.3% gross about average for Aylesbury and better than the banks!

 

Aspen Close Aylesbury, HP20 1XY £179,950.

 

If you want more information or have some questions please give me a call 01296 398555 or email me ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

 

1,256 Aylesbury Properties lie empty– An injustice for the 2,570 people on the Council House Waiting List?

Easy problems should have easy solutions  - shouldn’t they? 

Problems like Aylesbury’s housing crisis, where we have a rudimentary numerical problem of too few homes for too many people ... the answer is clearly to build more property in Aylesbury - but that, unfortunately for those desperately seeking to purchase or let a property, takes a lot of time and huge amounts of money. So what of other solutions? 

Whilst at lunch with a friend whilst on holiday last week, the subject of property came up as it invariably does (as I am sure it does at most lunch/dinner parties up and down the country). Normally someone always mentions empty properties as the solution to the problem. On the face of it, it seems so obvious. As I had recently done some research on this topic, I want to share it with you as I did with my friend at lunch last week.

The most recent set of figures from 2015 state there are 1,256 empty homes in the Aylesbury Vale District Council area. So it begs the question ... why not put them back into the system and help ease the Aylesbury housing crisis? Whilst they stand empty, 2,570 Aylesbury households (not people – households) are on the Council House Waiting List for council houses. Surely, we can all agree that property left empty for years and years is not morally right with the burgeoning Council House Waiting List, not to also mention the issue of homelessness.  

But a different story emerges when you look deeper into the numbers. Of those 1,256 homes lying empty, only 240 properties were empty for more than six months. The local authority has to report a property being empty, even if it is for a week. So many of these Aylesbury properties are either awaiting new homeowners or, in the case of rental properties, new tenants. Also most certainly, some properties are being refurbished and renovated, while others properties have homeowners who are anxious to sell but cannot find a buyer. 

The fact is that the number of genuinely long term empty properties is only a tiny drop in the ocean of the 69,406 properties in the area covered by Aylesbury Vale District Council and, even if every one of those empty homes were filled with happy cheerful tenants tomorrow, it would only meet a small fraction of Aylesbury housing needs.

So what does this mean for all the homeowners and landlords of Aylesbury? Well it means with demand being so high, especially for rental properties, the certainty of the rental market growing is an inevitability because young people cannot buy and councils do not have the money to build new council houses. This in turn bolsters property prices as landlords continue to buy at the lower end of the market (starter homes, etc), which in turn sustains the rest of the market as those sellers move up the property ladder, releasing others in turn to buy on again. 

These are interesting times in the Aylesbury property market!

 

 

Sunshine walks with Nala

 

£7,300 boost to Aylesbury First time buyers

There is a whole legion of wannabe Aylesbury first-time buyers keen to get on the property ladder and they now have a 3% price advantage over the previously quicker responding army of Aylesbury landlords with cash at the ready. Since the start of April, buy to let landlords have had to pay an additional 3% stamp duty so whilst demand from some Aylesbury buy to let landlords has dropped away it offers Aylesbury first time buyers (FTB’s) a chance to fill the vacuum with less competition from cash rich landlords (over two thirds of BTL properties were purchased without a mortgage in the last 7 years) who could bid more and complete quicker. 

Looking at the average value of a terraced house in Aylesbury currently standing at £244,900, that means if our Aylesbury FTB went up against an Aylesbury landlord, the landlord would have to pay an additional £7,347 in stamp duty. Early evidence from fellow property professionals in the town is suggesting landlords are being a bit more selective with Aylesbury properties reflecting the extra stamp duty costs.    

Since 2011/12, the Aylesbury property market has performed very well indeed. Over the last 12 months, £716,981,760 has been spent buying 2,376 Aylesbury properties.  Figures from the Land Registry have just been released and month on month in our council area, property values are 0.8% higher, yet 11.4% higher year on year. These figures are nowhere near the heady days of 2000 (August to be exact), when Aylesbury property prices rose by 22.2% in 12 months.

So as property values in Aylesbury (and the UK as whole) start to stablise and come back to some kind of balance, I am beginning to see informed landlords view the Aylesbury property market in a different light. Even with the Spring rush, gone are the days where you could make limitless money on anything that had a door, a few windows and roof. This stamp duty change has made more and more landlords, after reading the Aylesbury Property Market Blog http://theaylesburypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/  take advice on what or not to buy and what to pay, meaning Aylesbury landlords are being more calculated with their Aylesbury BTL purchases. I am also seeing a variance between relatively brisk current price momentum and softer expectations in terms of property value growth in Aylesbury. This in part reflects amplified uncertainty about the short term economic outlook (e.g. Brexit, Issues in the Far East etc.).   

Now I know a lot of Aylesbury landlords brought forward their BTL purchases to beat the stamp duty deadline. However, it is probable that hunger from Aylesbury investors will return for the right Aylesbury property later in the year, especially if it is at the right price and offers a sensible yield. However, in the meantime, Aylesbury FTB’s could and should, in the short term, make hay whilst the sun shines.

I love a mud bath in the sunshine.

The Aylesbury lettings market today…What landlords need to know.

A lot has happened over the last year that impacts on landlords. We have had a raft of new legislation, changes in Stamp Duty thresholds for landlords investing and more tax changes on the way. There has been good news with considerable increases in selling prices giving landlords substantial capital gains and in most cases rents have also increased significantly.

But where are we now? What impact have these changes had? Is buying to let still a sensible option? What is the current state of the Aylesbury lettings market?

Yes it is still a sensible investment to buy to let. The capital gains we have seen, and are likely to see, are substantial enough to give a sensible return in excess of other investments available to you and me. The tax changes will have an impact, so if you are highly geared it may become marginal on a monthly return basis, but the capital gains are likely to overshadow this if you have purchased the right property.

Rents seem to have reached a plateau over the last few weeks. Looking at Rightmove this morning there are 250 available properties. This includes 64 commercial properties but is still higher than the sub 200 levels we saw earlier this year. Noticeably there are increasing numbers or properties appearing as reduced. It reinforces the need to get your price right at the start of your marketing and to not be too ambitious. Do not be led by an over excited agent trying to hit his listings target, look at the evidence in detail. For example if you are letting a modern two bedroom house Rightmove will show you that almost everything sub £900pcm has been let, those over £900 have likely had to reduce, had that something extra that appealed to tenants, continue to wait for the right tenant or just got lucky when the market supply was poor.

Whilst mentioning Rightmove be aware that they are in the process of changing the way they display property. A standard display will include two photographs…looking this morning there are many properties that only have one photo showing, check with your agent, hopefully they will already be on the ball with this.

Rightmove have also changed the filters you can use as a viewer. Of the 250 properties listed today 19 of them do not appear using any filter, not great if you are trying to let! Check your agent has listed your property correctly.

The increase in available property numbers is not only a result of landlords buying early this year to avoid the revised Stamp Duty  but also tenants being reluctant to pay the increased market rents. Notably we are seeing very few tenants ending their tenancies at present, preferring to avoid moving costs and stay where they are. Many landlords, rightly, take a softer view on increasing rent if they have a reliable tenant in place so existing tenants are tending to stay put.

In summary the lettings market remains strong. If you have the right property, in a sensible location, present it well and don’t over price it you will let readily to good tenants. Do make it as tax efficient as possible ( I can point you in the right direction if this is an area you are not sure about) and do make sure you are up to date with legislation changes.

I am on holiday at the end of this week for two weeks so if you are popping by Declen will be pleased to help you. It is worth noting that he makes a better cup of coffee than me!

ian@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

declen@mortimersaylesbury.co.uk

Nala pretends to ignore treats while her friend Syren takes pole position

Brexit and Aylesbury Property market – 49% more properties on the market

April Fools Day was no joke for some landlords, as they rushed their buy to let property purchases throughout late March to beat the extra 3% stamp duty George Osborne imposed on buy to let properties after the 31^st March 2016. We were successful in getting one property exchanged at 6.30pm on the day of the deadline…lots of sweet talking required to get solicitors to do that one!! Because some investors brought forward their 2016 property purchases to save the extra tax, all of us have noticed, demand to buy in April and May from these landlords has eased, although demand remains strong driven by lack of supply.  

Then we have the Brexit issue, which is also a tempering effect on the Aylesbury property market – although if you recall I wrote about this a few weeks ago, and whilst an exit will have an effect – it won’t be the end of the world scenario some commentators are suggesting. In another article I wrote previously, I spoke of the growth rate of Aylesbury property values, and whilst the rate of growth is slowing, Aylesbury property values are still 10.3% higher year on year, albeit the growth rate month on month has started to moderate when compared to the heady days of month on month rises of 2014 and 2015. A very recent members survey of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors states that only 17% of members believed property values would increase over the next Quarter compared to 44% at the end of 2015. It is worth noting that the growth has been more significant in the lower market, sub £275,000, where the demand has been strongest from investors and first time buyers.

All this had led to an increase in the number of properties for sale. For example in the HP19 postcode, which mainly comprises  Fairford Leys, Prebendal Farm, Quarrendon and Watermead there were 128 properties for sale in the postcode in December (of which 29 came on to the market for the first time). In January, February and March, 246 properties came onto the market in the postcode district (or an average of 82 per month), meaning by end of the first Quarter, there were 191 properties available for homeowners and landlords alike to buy in HP19 (i.e. a rise of 49.2% more properties for sale). These figures are mirrored in neighbouring postcodes throughout the Aylesbury area.

 On the face of it, this easing should be bad news for the 47,767 Aylesbury homeowners, but nothing could be further from the truth. The majority of homeowners that move, move up market, (i.e. from a flat to terrace/town house, then a semi and then detached), so whilst  you would have achieved a top dollar figure for your property, you would would have had to have paid an even higher top dollar to secure the one you wanted to buy. The Swings and Roundabouts of the Aylesbury Property Market!

 

All the signals suggest that whatever the aftermath of the approaching EU referendum, in the long term, the disparity between demand for Aylesbury property and the supply will still exercise a sturdy and definitive influence on the Aylesbury property market. It would surprise me that if by 2021, whichever way we vote in late June, assuming we don’t have another credit crunch or issues like a major world conflict, property prices will be 20% to 25% higher than they are today. Income from capital growth you can’t get from a bank or Building society savings account!

Ready and waiting for the next treat

The future of the Aylesbury lettings market.

‘An Englishman’s Home is his Castle’ is the phrase that was coined in Victorian times as the UK has always had a reputation for being a country of home owners... but the truth could not be further from the point. In a league of the top 46 economic nations of the world, where owning your property is permissible, the UK is only ranked no.37.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, at the end of the First World War, 77% of people rented their home (the vast majority renting from a private landlord as Council Housing was still very much in its infancy). Homeownership rose very slowly in the 1920’s and started to grow as the economy grew after the Great Depression. However, in the early 40’s, the priority was to get people into clean and decent accommodation ... so Local Authority’s (Councils) took up the baton and built large council estates in the 1950’s and 1960’s. 

 

As the UK economy got back on its feet in the middle part of the 20^th Century and wages rose, people decided they wanted to own their own home instead of renting. Throughout the post war decades, it became easier to secure a mortgage. By 1977, 61.6% of 30 to 34 year olds were owner occupiers with a mortgage compared to 8.7% of 30 to 34 year olds being in private rented accommodation (the remaining either being in council housing or living with friends or family). Ten years later, in 1987, we saw some significant growth in homeownership, as 68.2% of 30 to 34 year olds had a mortgage and only 4.6% of people privately rented. A decade later and there was not much change as, in 1997, the homeownership figure was 68.3% but private renting had jumped to 12.1% in the same 30 to 34 year old age group. 

 

Move on another ten years to the 2007 figures, and this showed a slight drop in homeownership to 65.8% but renting had continued to increase to 18.7% (in the 30 to 34 year old age group). The latest set of figures is for 2014, and only 47.2% of 30 to 34 year olds had a mortgage and an eye watering 33.4% of 30 to 34 year olds privately rent.

 

When we look at the Aylesbury figures of homeownership, looking back to 1991, 69% of Aylesbury households were owned by the homeowner, whilst 2.6% of Aylesbury households were privately rented, whilst the 2011 census showed home ownership in Aylesbury had stayed stagnant at 69.51% and private rented had increased to 15.19%. Much of the recent rise in the occurrence of private renting in Aylesbury since the turn of the Millennium is not because property has become more expensive, but the fact these 30 somethings haven’t got a council house to move into (because they were all sold off) – so they have to rent. The selling of council housing in the 1980’s (a subject I have talked about in a previous article in the Aylesbury Property Market Blog) artificially grew homeownership in the 1980’s, but as these people have got older, the younger generation didn’t have the same opportunity to buy their council house in the 1990’s, 2000’s or 2010’s. That is why, unless the council start building council houses by the acre, and hundreds of acres, private renting will continue to grow in Aylesbury.

 

So if you are a tenant I am sorry but things are not about to change any time soon. Supply will continue to be limited and as a result prices will remain high and competition for the good/desirable properties will remain strong.

 

If you are a landlord you can be reassured that there will continue to be a ready market at strong prices for your stock and with the sales market continuing in strength you will see sensible levels of capital growth if you have bought the right property in the right location.

Living the dream.